San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2008

by John Sickels on Dec 12, 2007 1:05 AM EST in News

Thomas Merton, a favorite padre of mine

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change.

Chase Headley, 3B, Grade B+ (should this be A-?)
Matt Antonelli, 2B, Grade B+
Matt Latos, RHP, Grade B
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Grade B
Will Inman, RHP, Grade B
Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade B
Cedric Hunter, OF, Grade B- (I still like his chances)
Kyle Blanks, 1B, Grade B-
Chad Huffman, OF, Grade B-
Nick Hundley, C, Grade C+
Drew Miller, RHP, Grade C+ (great arm, could be higher)
Steve Garrison, LHP, Grade C+
Josh Geer, RHP, Grade C+
Mitch Canham, C, Grade C+
Cory Luekbe, LHP, Grade C+
Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+ (really like this guy)
Carlos Guevara, RHP, Grade C+ (excellent Rule 5 pick)
Michael Gardner, RHP, Grade C+ (excellent Rule 5 pick)
Corey Kluber, RHP, Grade C+
Ernest Frieri, RHP, Grade C+

Other C+ guys include Drew Cumberland, Luis Durango, Drew Freese, Danny Payne, Nick Schmidt, and very good LOOGY Joe Thatcher. All interchangeable with the C+ guys above. And there are some Cs I like. . .Cesar Carrillo pending his elbow recovery. Cesar Ramos and Will Venable may contribute. Watch a draft sleeper named Wynn Pelzer, has a very live arm.

Of course, full statistics and reports on over 1,000 other players will be in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order. Ships the first Monday in February!

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Comments

Interesting

I think Headley & Antonelli should be A-.

I can't see how Geer's on this list (MiLB career 5.53 K/9) and I don't know how Freese is only "honorable mention" (career MiLB .307/.399/.514)... He's older, but he rakes.

I also think John has Blanks under-rated... He turned 21 in Sept. and hit .301/.380/.580 and struck out less than 100 times. He's probably limited to 1B or DH, but he can rake! (By the way, Blanks' swing is virtually identical to Miguel Cabrera's.)

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 12, 2007 1:26 AM EST 0 recs

I like Antonelli

but it's tough to give an A- to someone who dominated A+ at 22 years old. His numbers in AA were very good, but not "A-" good, and even 22 in AA is a bit old.

by Galt on Dec 12, 2007 9:46 AM EST up 0 recs

A valid point

Though those numbers are more impressive if you consider that he was going 20-20 while playing 2nd base. How many 20-20 2nd basemen are there in the majors?

http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/

by lemonjello on Dec 12, 2007 12:24 PM EST up 0 recs

I actually looked it up

only two. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips (who actually went 30-30).

There were only 6 second basemen who had both 10 homers and 10 steals.

Personally I view Antonelli as more of a 10-15 homer and 20-30 steal guy in the majors. I'm not sure he can consistently hit over 15 homeruns in the majors.

by kaisertown on Dec 12, 2007 12:56 PM EST up 0 recs

Homerun Potential

Especially playing at PETCO, something people fail to acknowledge when they are rating prospects. For example, check out the Dodgers top hitting prospects lately, they came up with incredible numbers, but when they got to home run suppressing Dodger stadium, leaving their cozy AAA and AA ballparks, they came back down to earth.

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 13, 2007 11:06 AM EST up 0 recs

except that...

Dodgers stadium doesn't suppress HR at all. Not to mention that their AA affiliate (Jacksonville) has a fairly nuetral park in terms of HRs. You'll get no argument that their AAA park is a launching pad, but them going to dodgers stadium and losing HR power has nothing to do with Dodgers Stadium and all to do with Vegas' park.

by jspearlj1 on Dec 13, 2007 11:20 AM EST up 0 recs

re:

Dodger stadium does not depress home runs. It plays neutral some years or hitter friendly other years with regards to home runs. It does suppress other types of offense like doubles and especially triples.

When I rate prospects I do the exercise in a park neutral context. But I don't play fantasy, only sim.

by McLovin on Dec 13, 2007 11:20 AM EST up 0 recs

Back in the day...

Ronnie Gant was 19/19 his rookie year, back in the day. :)

by BobbyMac on Dec 12, 2007 1:00 PM EST up 0 recs

A few comments

-I really liked Pelzer coming out of USC and he was a steal. He could very well be the COTF for the Padres.

-I personally like Canham a lot and think he will be a very offensive catcher and deserves to be mentioned in the Top 20. Keep in mind he hasn;t been playing catcher very long and has grasped the position very well thus far.

-Also, seems like Schmidt & Cumberland might possibly be undervalued here.

by Havok1517 on Dec 12, 2007 1:37 AM EST 0 recs

hunter

has hunters projection changed much? was he rushed this year or what was the story?

by znyfan on Dec 12, 2007 1:39 AM EST 0 recs

Hunter...

hit .371/.467/.484 last year in the AZL but he did so w/ an un-repeatable .400+ BABIP...

This year he hit .282/.344/.373 in the MWL as a 19 year old and had more repeatable .336 BABIP.

Hunter is a classic tweener, does he have enough range to play CF? If so, he'll be real good. Does he have enough power to play LF? If not, he could be another guy who just didn't make it.

An intriguing comp is Shannon Stewart...

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 12, 2007 2:08 AM EST up 0 recs

Luis Durango

Saw him a number of times this season (along with Kulbacki and Canham), and he's a lot of fun to watch. Very fast, lots of infield singles, can bunt. No power. Prototypical leadoff guy. Basestealing technique needs a lot of work - a guy with his speed shouldn't have a 17/10 steal/CS ratio. He hit .367 with a .422 obp. I'll be very curious to see how he does at higher levels.

by dodgem on Dec 12, 2007 1:45 AM EST 0 recs

Response

I like Headley at A- and Antonelli at B+.

by mrkupe on Dec 12, 2007 1:50 AM EST 0 recs

+1

by BGWoodsman on Dec 12, 2007 2:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Headley

Headley's .411 BABIP is cause for concern. He also didn't hit with enough power for a guy his age at AA and struck out too often for a guy his age at AA. The singles and doubles are impressive, but I wonder how much of that is due to running hot? It's easy to fall in love with a guy who hit .330, but Headley looks more like a .260-.270 big league hitter at this point.

The things in his favor are a percieved major league readiness, even though he's got exactly zero ABs at AAA, an excellent walk rate, and presumably good scouting reports.

What about this Nick Hundley character? He hit with more power and whiffed less than Headley at the same age/level and he plays a premium position. If there's any chance he stays at catcher, I'd rank him ahead of Headley for sure.

by rwperu34 on Dec 12, 2007 3:45 AM EST 0 recs

Headley:

As far as BABIP goes, its fairly legit because of the high LD rate relative to league (24.9% to 19.8%). He performed at 23% above the league's LD% in 2007 and 20% above in 2006, so his LD ability is definately there, so avergae and obp aren't the problem. Also his home park suppressed HR a little, so he was really closer to 25 HR than 21. He should bat for a 290/300 avg/380-390 obp 500-540 slg. Basically you are talking about a high 800's low 900's OPS 3B with average or so defense... that's really good.

However, I wouldn't upgrade him to an A- mainly because of the k rate. 27% is a bit too high and leaves me feeling like there are some contact questions remaining. And his defense isnt great either, he could very well move off of the position some years down the road and lose a lot of his value in doing so.

Nick Hundley on the otherhand, should be a straight B if his defense is passable at C, if not then I suppose B-. His BABIP was 260 with a 20.7 LD% (vs 19.8 League average LD%) with a more acceptable k rate (19%) than Headley. Not only was his avg suppressed last year by his BABIP but so was his slugging, he probably should have had 2-3 more HR in that park. A rough line correction would have him at 270/345/510/855 and that may still be understating things a bit. An 855 OPS from a catcher in AA that doesn't have serious contact issues is a damn fine prospect.

by jspearlj1 on Dec 12, 2007 9:10 AM EST up 0 recs

Headley

Headley is an A-. Switch hitters with his power and plate discipline come along once every 10 years. I'm not saying he's Chipper or Teixeira, but he's got an excellent shot to be something around 75% of those guys, with a run of .300/.400/.500 seasons not out of reach. He's not overmatched at 3b, but even as an OFer, he'll profile well. Petco will hurt him, but that projection takes into account his upside even with Petco considered. He should be the Padres 3b/lf by June now that Fukudome is out of the picture.
JAS

by jasvlm on Dec 12, 2007 7:41 AM EST 0 recs

College OFs...

What is the difference between Huffman and Kullbacki? Below are their NWL performances as 21 year olds.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
CH A- 54 198 41 68 17 1 9 40 25 34 .343 .439 .576 1.015 2 3
KK A- 61 226 33 68 13 3 8 39 27 56 .301 .382 .491 .873 1 1

by cooper7d7 on Dec 12, 2007 9:20 AM EST 0 recs

Huffman

Scouts don't like him because he's got an unathletic body. It's similar to his brother's and since his brother isn't going to make it, they figure Chad won't make it either. Chad has shown much more power than Royce, but it may not be enough because he's restricted to a corner outfield slot. Maybe Huffman and Kulbacki will one day make a nice platoon.

by bolton on Dec 13, 2007 12:19 PM EST up 0 recs

Gosh John

This is getting eerie. We both went to grad school forever. We both have a fascination for history, especially naval history. And of course there's minor league baseball. No big deal. Lots of guys have that combination of interests.

But the Merton picture just threw me. As an amateur Merton scholar, I don't come across too many people outside of the priesthood who know much about him.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2007 9:24 AM EST 0 recs

merton

email about this topic sent your way, cmathewson.

by John Sickels on Dec 12, 2007 10:36 AM EST up 0 recs

email

cmathewson, your email address I have on file bounced back. Please email me at JASickels@aol.com

by John Sickels on Dec 12, 2007 10:42 AM EST up 0 recs

ditto

I just commented about the pic via email to a friend. I wouldn't call myself a "Merton scholar", but I definitely found his works to be filled with wisdom, and challenging in the best of ways. :)

by BobbyMac on Dec 12, 2007 12:35 PM EST up 0 recs

Wow!

I wouldn't have bet 50 cents that there was someone else on this board who knew who Thomas Merton was.

Great man.

by BaseballBrain on Dec 12, 2007 1:33 PM EST up 0 recs

Craig Cooper

Is Cooper just too old to make the list?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Dec 12, 2007 10:02 AM EST 0 recs

Ditto for Will Venable?

He had a decent if not spectacular transition to AAA and scouts still seem to like his potential, but he's getting old. Perhaps a 4th OF type?

by NYCRoyal on Dec 12, 2007 10:07 AM EST up 0 recs

not too old

...just not good enough...

He flashed 12 HR power (9 in 2nd half) last year in MWL and skipped Hi-A. However his walk-rate fell and his HR rate fell too... If he can play legitimate CF he's still a prospect. If not, well then, he's not...

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 12, 2007 3:58 PM EST up 0 recs

Cooper....

is the rare lefty-throwing righty-hitting prospect... He doesn't have much power so he'll be a back-up (think Mark Sweeney) RF/1B.

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 12, 2007 4:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Headley

I can see how he can excite Padres fans.

What are they going to do with the Headley/Kouz situation?

by npurcell on Dec 12, 2007 4:39 PM EST 0 recs

Left field

Kevin Towers said last week they will be experimenting with Headley in left. He will take flies during their winter workouts at PETCO in January and go into spring training as a potential Opening Day option there. The Padres feel his bat is ready.

by sdbaseballfan on Dec 12, 2007 4:56 PM EST up 0 recs

Healey

A-...he has very good potential

--http://yankeesfuture.wordpress.com Bobby Mcnally (alias)

by bobbymcnally on Dec 12, 2007 7:26 PM EST 0 recs

Isn't BABIP considered a skill for a hitter?

I think people kind of overuse the stat or overrate the stat when it comes to analyzing it. BABIP is better used to judge pitcher's luck... I'm not so sure it does an appropriate job to judge the luck of a hitter.

by cubsfan2883 on Dec 12, 2007 8:01 PM EST 0 recs

michael gardner

excellent rule 5 pick? C+?

yikes what are you seeing here?

decent GB rates, mediocre stuff, and 30/66 BB/K in 81 innings for a 26 year old in AA

by PooNani on Dec 12, 2007 10:26 PM EST 0 recs

2007?

Did he add a new pitch in 2007, or was he just injured a lot in 2005/2006? I see that he was allowed to start 3 games in 2007, but that his WP total went up to 17, and he hit 8 batters - both belying his not-bad walk rate.

by BobbyMac on Dec 13, 2007 9:15 AM EST up 0 recs

#10 - Hundley

Is this a pick based on depth at the position or is it essentially retroactive to what the kid did in college? While the power he displayed this past season looked nice, hes getting up there in age for his level and has a less then spectacular walk rate. I recognize he is only a C+, but I am just curious as to how he ever deserved a grade that high. Is he an excellent fielder?

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball - http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com

by bheikoop on Dec 13, 2007 11:11 AM EST 0 recs

Hundley:

As I showed before, he was pretty unlucky at the plate in terms of AVG. he was closer to an 850 OPS catcher than 800 OPS, if he can passably field his position that makes him an average to above average MLB starting catcher in a year or two... that's a pretty valuable commodity if you look around the league. I still think C+ is a bit down for him.

by jspearlj1 on Dec 13, 2007 11:23 AM EST up 0 recs

Hundley

When Hundley was drafted he was considered the 2nd best Defensive catcher in the draft (behind Teagarden) but he was considered a better hitter... Teagarden has now surpassed Hundley as a hitter but Hundley should be an average catcher (offense & defense).

-peter

by PeterF on Dec 14, 2007 1:01 AM EST up 0 recs

Moneyball!

The Padres took a hard turn toward Moneyball style drafting and player development when Sandy Alderson and Grady Fuson arrived on the scene. The thing is, they are doing it a lot better than Billy Beane which makes you wonder where Beane got the idea from in the first place.

I see pitching as a looming weakness in the pads system, as it currently is with the A's. Is the statisical evaluation of pitching prospects more advanced than for pitchers?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 13, 2007 6:30 PM EST 0 recs

"Moneyball"

There's little question that the so-called "Moneyball" approach came to Beane from Alderson. It was Alderson who hired Eric Walker back in the day, after all.

The Padres have a smart - and smartly-run - organization, from the top down. They will move aggressively to attack weaknesses.

Statistical evaluation of pitching prospects isn't anywhere close to being "more advanced" than statistical evaluation of pitchers. For example, too many statistical analysts still rely heavily on the DIPS assertion that BABIP is mostly a matter of "luck" for pitching prospects, and ignore or downplay it. But hit prevention, in the minors, is NOT strictly a matter of "luck" - in fact, it is a leading indicator (along with contact prevention) for success at higher levels. Clay Davenport demonstrated that pitchers with good BABIP at lower levels tend to be promoted more quickly, and have more success, at higher levels than pitcher with worse BABIP.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Dec 14, 2007 10:10 AM EST up 0 recs