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Beau Mills

Thinking about Beau Mills

With a  relative shortage of top college hitters this year, Beau Mills stands out. He was a very good hitter at Fresno State his first two years, but transferred to the smaller pond of Lewis-Clark State this year and put up monstrous numbers: .458/.556/1.033, with 38 homers, 22 doubles, 123 RBI, 43 walks, and 22 strikeouts in 240 at-bats. His OPS was 1.589. The combined OPS of the games in which he played was about .797...a crude estimate would put his OPS+ at 199. Basically he was so much better than his teammates or the competition that the numbers move into the ridiculous category. Imagine Albert Pujols playing in the Pioneer League.

Scouts are certain that Mills' power is for real and that he'll continue to hit for plus power at higher levels. He's got solid plate discipline. There's some doubt about what his batting average is going to look like, but he should post a solid OBP no matter what to go with his power. The main issue is defense. Shoulder problems have limited his arm strength, and he doesn't have a lot of mobility. He'll probably end up at first base eventually.

I could see Mills going anywhere from picks four to twenty, depending on how things shake out with the high schoolers. My question for you is this: if you drafted Mills, where would you start him? Would you send him to short-season ball, or, considering his dominance this year, would you stick him in a full-season league right off the bat, and if so, how high?

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Good question on development track....
I would likely avoid the short-season leagues.  If I am willing to invest a first-round pick on a college player, I want him playing High-A ball for me.  As a GM, if I thought he was worth a early to mid first round pick, I would think he's up to the challenge of High-A ball.

Long term, sounds like 1B is his likely destination.  I'd probaly keep him at 3B to start, just to see if there was any hope of him sticking there.

by guru4u on Jun 4, 2007 12:26 PM EDT   0 recs

Placement
I'm praying the Giants get him at #10.  So what if he plays 1B.  When was the last time the Giants had a power hitting first baseman?  Anyway, I'd have him on a similar track as Tim Lincecum last year.  1-2 weeks at Salem-Keizer.  If he rakes there, move him right up to San Jose for the rest of the summer.  Hopefully AA in 2008.  Who knows?  Maybe he could be like Will Clark and move straight from the Cal League his first summer to the majors?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:31 PM EDT   0 recs

yep
+1
Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Jun 4, 2007 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but
i also wouldnt mind jason heyward falling to the giants at number 10 either..
Giants '08

by z4 landshark on Jun 4, 2007 12:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+2... mostly
Start in Low A. If he does well, promote him to AA after a month or so (just to make sure it isn't a one or two week fluke). If he doesn't start off well, leave him in Low A all season.

If he does well though, move him to AA like I stated, and if he continues to hit well, maybe even give him a try in AAA for the last week or the season. Just to see how he does there. Depending on his AA and maybe AAA numbers, decide where to start him next season. Most likely AA, but if he is killing everywhere he goes, he may be ready for AAA in 2008. Maybe a September call-up to the Giants in 08 too.

I wouldn't move him as fast as Zimmerman moved, but if you can ease his mind from any defensive woes by playing him at 1B, it may allow him to fast track a little quicker to the bigs.

"Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young and 11 Tim Lincecums." -uga007

by Boxkutter on Jun 4, 2007 3:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Separated At Birth?
Much as I want the Giants to draft him, I have to say that mug looks frighteningly similar to Todd Linden's.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:32 PM EDT   0 recs

Pretty sure John's OPS+ calc is way too low
Mills' OBP/SLG are 556/1033. We know the "league" OPS is 797. Assume this breaks out to be 345 OBP/452 SLG. OPS+ formula is (obp/lgOBP) + (slg/lgSLG) - 1.

Gives us:

1.61 + 2.29 - 1.00 = 2.90

So yeah, OPS+ of 290 (not adjusted for park). Not bad.

by Kyle S on Jun 4, 2007 12:48 PM EDT   0 recs

ummm
I dont know where you got that calculation but I am pretty darn sure the calculation for OPS+ is OPS/LeagueOPS*100

by Kanst42 on Jun 4, 2007 1:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

correction
It entirely depends on the website some do it your way some do it the way I stated

by Kanst42 on Jun 4, 2007 1:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

short season ball
i'd put him at a lower level... keep his confidence high instead of rushing him into a level of competition he has not really seen before.

by znyfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:58 PM EDT   0 recs

and
keep him at 3rd

by znyfan on Jun 4, 2007 12:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd start him at A
Since I'm a Pirates fan, that'd be Hickory in the Sally League. Seems like a good compromise.

by Vlad on Jun 4, 2007 1:25 PM EDT   0 recs

parting shots
mills had a huge day in the NAIA championship game, homering 3 times and driving in 8 to lead lewis-clark st to the title. the 3rd homer (his 38th of the season) broke the NAIA record for HR in a season.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/?p=160

by jpahk on Jun 4, 2007 1:43 PM EDT   0 recs

Mills Kills
I'm even higher on Mills than most and consider him (along with Price and Weiters) to be the surest bet as a MFL contributor. I'd probably let him get his feet wet in Low A, but be quick to pull the trigger and move him to High A in 2007 if he performs as expected. Perhaps as soon as a few weeks in. One of the chief knocks on Mills has been the strength of his competition, so as a GM I'd want to bury those doubts by putting him up against age-appropriate competition ASAP. Mills turns 21 on 08/15/07. The long-term goal is to start at AA in 2008, and perhaps earn a cup of coffee in September '08. His bat is going to move FAST! His position might depends more on the organization that drafts him. He's not graceful at 3B, but his defense improved significantly over the course of the season, and he could possibly be a league-average defender with a lot of work over there. For a team like the Nationals, though, his glove is never going to dislodge Zimmerman, so an immediate move to 1B may be the best course. I think Mills is a particularly good fit for PIT, BAL, and WAS early on. SF will definately take him off the board at #10 if he makes it that far.

by birdtown on Jun 4, 2007 1:46 PM EDT   0 recs

Mills Kills Deux

Wow, the above is really hard to read. Let's try this:

I'm even higher on Mills than most and consider him (along with Price and Weiters) to be the surest bet as a MFL contributor. I'd probably let him get his feet wet in Low A, but be quick to pull the trigger and move him to High A in 2007 if he performs as expected. Perhaps as soon as a few weeks in. One of the chief knocks on Mills has been the strength of his competition, so as a GM I'd want to bury those doubts by putting him up against age-appropriate competition ASAP. Mills turns 21 on 08/15/07. The long-term goal is to start at AA in 2008, and perhaps earn a cup of coffee in September '08. His bat is going to move FAST!

His position might depends more on the organization that drafts him. I think he's close enough to the majors that you have to take positional needs into consideration here. He's not graceful at 3B, but his defense improved significantly over the course of the season, and he could possibly be a league-average defender with a lot of work over there. For a team like the Nationals, though, his glove is never going to dislodge Zimmerman, so an immediate move to 1B may be the best course.

I think Mills is a particularly good fit for PIT, BAL, and WAS early on. SF will definately take him off the board at #10 if he makes it that far.

by birdtown on Jun 4, 2007 1:52 PM EDT   0 recs

mills
Start him at Low A after the draft, start him at High A in 2008, then bump him to AA by June if he's raking. May as well put him at 1B and just let him mash away.

by phuturephillies on Jun 4, 2007 2:04 PM EDT   0 recs

starting off
i would put him in short season ball (either the New York-Penn League or the Northwest League) for a couple of weeks like the rays did with longoria last year and then see where he is at.

by fewgoodcards on Jun 4, 2007 2:49 PM EDT   0 recs

+1
I agree the Longoria treatment is the way to go.  A lot of teams have huge attendance and their SSA team close to home, so that could be nice to showcase him there for a bit.

If he destroys the league like Longoria did, then bump him to high A in season.

by elricsi on Jun 5, 2007 10:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

High A
But I have a strong feeling he will KILL there. Im talking .350/ .500/ .650. there...just a feeling. I think he can get a September callup THIS year, I really do...depending on who drafts him...especially the Nats.
casedog

by casejud on Jun 5, 2007 12:00 PM EDT   0 recs

I wish I had some idea
who was going to draft him.

I think I'd rather see him go to a relatively low-octane environment. I would be more inclined to start him in low-A, rather than high-A, especially if he's drafted by a team whose high-A affiliate is in the California League. I'm just not 100% sold that he's really that good.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/

by MikeE on Jun 5, 2007 12:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1
I dont really doubt he will hit for power but I have some concerns that me may strikeout too much to keep a high average. I think you start him at whichever one of your A level teams is the best hitting environments to boost his confidence and then based on how he succeeds he either starts in High A or AA in 2008

by Kanst42 on Jun 5, 2007 1:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I appreciate the concearn for him...
but...just my opinion but i am pretty certain on this one...HE DOESNT NEED IT! He WONT struggle in the Cal League at all. He can go to low A though...it would be REAL FUN to see the numbers man, Ill tell ya.

He is SUCH a gifted hitter. You have no idea. Im tellin ya.

Another prediction: Teams are hiding their interest in him and on draft dsay he will go a LOT higher than most expect...no lower than #6. Just a feeling. Maybe Orioles do something smart for once?

casedog

by casejud on Jun 5, 2007 4:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Goldstein on Mills
Pros: Monstrous season at NAIA powerhouse; plus power to all fields, with one scout comparing him to Mike Piazza for his ability to drive balls the other way; also should hit for high average; son of Red Sox coach Brad Mills, and grew up around the game.
Cons: His aggressive hitting style worked in Idaho, but he might be prone to chasing pitches against better pitching; a bad defender who will likely require an immediate move to first base.

He played all year at the NAIA, which does not offer good competition. My worry stems from his performance last summer in the Alaskan summer league (worse competition then the Cape League) where he hit around .270 with a bunch of K's. I think he needs some time in the low minors to work on hitting guys with good sliders, he will probably crush Low A but I dont know if he is ready to handle AA.

by Kanst42 on Jun 5, 2007 5:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Laporta
If Beau Mills was to become a first baseman is he really any better than Matt LaPorta? Laporta had more home runs (20) than strikeouts (16) this year. He also led the nation in OBP and OPS while playing in the SEC. That's seriously impressive performance at a level where stats have some meaning.

I'm not going to argue that Mills NAIA stats have no meaning. He certainly was impressive. But I'd have a hard time believing that the Division I OPS leader would take a backseat regarding production to anything a lower level college division player might do.

by im not new on Jun 5, 2007 6:28 PM EDT   0 recs

NAIA
NAIA uses wood bats, right?

by limozeen on Jun 5, 2007 6:49 PM EDT   0 recs

1/2 Answer
After alot of searching, I found a document on the NAIA website saying that teams have the option to use either wood or non-wood bats during regional tournaments & world series.  I don't have the link, but you can find it by doing a search of "wood bats" on their main page.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jun 5, 2007 9:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wood Bats?
Why would you want to use a wood bat if you had the option of using a metal one?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jun 6, 2007 1:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Walks
Anyone know how many of Mills' walks were intentional? I haven't been able to find stats anywhere, just curious because he'd seem a very likely target for an intentional pass playing in the NAIA. No doubt he can mash, just wondering if he's really able to work the count, or can just flat out hit anything like Vlad. (And by Vlad I mean the guy on the Angels, not the previous poster.)
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." -Red Barber

by e 6 on Jun 6, 2007 4:03 PM EDT   0 recs

Mills to Mahoning Valley
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18446967&BRD=1699&PAG=461&dept_id=46370&rf i=6

Indians scouting director John Mirabelli says that Beau Mills "will be assigned to the Indians' rookie level team at Mahoning Valley initially."

So there's the answer.

by knightgalt on Jun 8, 2007 10:11 AM EDT   0 recs

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