Prospect Smackdown: Kershaw vs. McGee

by John Sickels on Sep 19, 2007 2:21 PM EDT in News

Prospect Smackdown: Clayton Kershaw vs. Jacob McGee

Background and Intangibles
Kershaw: Kershaw was drafted in the first round in 2006, out of high school in Dallas, Texas. Picked seventh overall in the draft, most teams thought he was the best high school pitcher available. His pro debut in the Gulf Coast League saw him post a 1.95 ERA with a 54/5 K/BB ratio in 37 innings. Sent to the Midwest League this season, he dominated the circuit and then held his own after a late promotion to Double-A. Scouts praise his work ethic and competitive instincts, and he's definitely one of the top pitching prospects in the game.
McGee: McGee was drafted by the Devil Rays in the fifth round of the 2004 draft, out of high school in Sparks, Nevada. Scouts respected his arm strength and physical projectability, but he was considered raw and in need of improvement in all phases of the game. He pitched well in the Appalachian League in '04 after signing, better than people expected, then had a decent year in the New York-Penn League in 2005. He broke out in 2006 with an excellent campaign for Southwest Michigan in the Midwest League, thanks to improved velocity and better command of his breaking pitches, and led the league in strikeouts. He's continued his progress this year with another excellent season, and is clearly one of the best pitching prospects in the game.
Advantage: Kershaw had a higher profile as an amateur, but McGee has developed very nicely himself. Both have the proper competitive drive, and McGee has shown that he is willing to work hard and improve his game. Overall this looks even, Kershaw's greater amateur background being balanced by the fact that McGee had more to learn as he entered pro ball than Kershaw did.

Physicality, Health, and Tools
Kershaw: Kershaw is 6-3, 210 pounds, a lefthanded hitter and thrower, born March 19, 1988. He is athletic and usually repeats his delivery well, although occasionally his release point will slip which hurts his command. His fastball is consistently in the low 90s and can hit 95-96 MPH at times. His curveball is excellent, and he's made major strides improving his changeup. Kershaw should have three above-average to excellent major league pitches, and as he refines his command he should have a dominating combination of plus stuff and sharp control. So far he has had no major health concerns.
McGee: McGee is 6-3, 200 pounds, a lefthanded hitter and thrower, born August 6, 1986. He was 6-2, 180 when he signed in the 2004, so he's added an inch and 20 pounds to his body as he's filled out physically. This boosted his fastball from 88-90 in high school to 90-94 now, hitting 95-96 at times. His curveball has evolved into a plus pitch, and he continues to make strides refining his changeup. McGee should have three above-average to excellent major league pitches. His command has improved, enabling him to dominate minor league hitters. So far he has had no major health concerns.
Advantage: Kershaw and McGee are similar physically and have similar arsenals. McGee's control is better right now, but he's also a year and a half older than Kershaw. Neither of them seem to have excess injury risk, granted the risk is still there given their ages: the point is that their risk is likely no higher than the average pitcher their ages. Kershaw is probably a tad more dominating right now, but McGee's better control balances that. Overall this is about as close as you can get.

Performance and Polish
Kershaw: Kershaw went 7-5, 2.77 in 20 starts this year for Great Lakes in the Midwest League, with a 134/50 K/BB ratio in 97.1 innings. He allowed just 72 hits and held hitters to a .203 average. Promoted to Double-A, he posted a 3.65 ERA in 24.2 innings, with a 29/17 K/BB ratio. Obviously the K/IP and H/IP rates are extremely impressive, especially given his age, but his walk rate is too high right now. Although he needs to polish his control, in general he is far more advanced in all phases of the game than his age 19 cohort.
McGee: McGee made 21 starts for Vero Beach in the Florida State League, going 5-4, 2.93 with a 145/39 K/BB in 116.2 innings, allowing 86 hits and a .203 average against. Promoted to Double-A Montgomery in the Southern League, he went 3-2, 4.24 in five starts with a 30/13 K/BB in 23.1 innings. Like Kershaw, McGee posted very impressive K/IP and H/IP ratios at both levels. His control is better and he walked fewer guys. He's quite polished for his age (21) although not as advanced on the age/skill curve as Kershaw is.
Advantage: McGee and Kershaw put up very similar numbers in both A-ball and Double-A. Kershaw was pitching at a lower level than McGee in A-ball, but he's younger. Both acquitted themselves very well in the Southern League, with strong K/IP ratios, although McGee showed better command. Granted, he's older than Kershaw. Overall I think we have to rate this as even, McGee's superior command numbers being countered by Kershaw's youth.

Projection
Kershaw: Kershaw projects as a number one or number two starter at the major league level, assuming his command improves and he remains healthy. At age 19, it's still possible he could pick up a bit more velocity as he matures.
McGee: McGee, assuming his command continues to sharpen and he remains healthy, could also be a number one or number two starter. At age 21, he still has some physical projection left, although not as much as Kershaw.
Advantage: Given the difference in their ages, Kershaw has a slight advantage here, in the sense that his physical potential to be a dominating ace is probably a bit higher than McGee's.

Summary :
I'd rate them as even on background and intangibles, even on physicality and stuff, even on polish and performance, and Kershaw having a slight edge on projection. Ultimately I think Kershaw rates just a hair ahead of McGee, simply because he's younger

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Comments

Nice write up

I'd disagree with the tools section though. From everything I've heard McGee's curveball isn't a plus pitch yet and lacks consistency. I think that Kershaw's curve is what separates the two.

by Metty5 on Sep 19, 2007 2:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Agreed

They are very close. I too, would give the slight edge to Kershaw, also on the belief that he may have a clearer road to the bigs (McGee is temporarily and potentially blocked with Price, Davis, Niemmann, ahead of him and others already at the MLB level - Kazmir, Shields, Sonnanstine).

I would take a good #1 or solid #2 any day.

by NewKidInTown on Sep 19, 2007 2:38 PM EDT 0 recs

I thought

that McGee had a better fastball. And Kershaw had the better breaking balls as Metty5 pointed out. Is this not accurate? Anyone with first-hand knowledge care to comment?

by So Cal Bob on Sep 19, 2007 2:47 PM EDT 0 recs

yeah

i kept hearing about how mcgee has been pushing the high 90's recently. i don't know if these are dubious radar gun readings or whatever, but everybody seems to be excited about his increased velocity.

tyler, where are you? i vaguely remember you being the source of these mcgee FB reports.

by jpahk on Sep 19, 2007 6:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

It has been

harder. And he is pushing it into the upper 90's. The start I went to in the FSL was against Tampa. Reggie Jackson walked by in the 4th and asked the scouts where McGee was, and they said at 94 most of the time, touching 96. He joking asked why he wasn't in the big leagues. Later in the year his velocity has gotten higher. I've seen a start and listened to a few other and he's been anywhere between 91-98 on the gun. But the gun at Riverwalk stadium in Montgomery in notoriously slow. I've heard from the Biscuits broadcaster and the Montgomery Adviser Biscuits blogger that it's at least 2mph slow. Here is a link to Stacy Long's blog talking about his second start in AA:

http://stacylong.blogspot.com/2007/08/steaming-mcgee.html

by Tyler on Sep 19, 2007 6:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Another

source. The official Biscuits website:

"In the last game of the 2007 campaign to be played at Montgomery Riverwalk Stadium, McGee (1-0) provided the best performance thus far from a Biscuits starter in the postseason. Flashing a fastball measured as high as 98 mph on the stadium's notorioiusly slow radar gun, the Nevadan southpaw limited the Stars' lineup to only six hits while striking out six batsmen and walking none."

http://www.biscuitsbaseball.com/games/91307.html

Just trying to find media citations of what I'm saying so you don't think I'm just pimping him because he's a Rays prospect. I am biased, but his velocity is legit.

by Tyler on Sep 20, 2007 12:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

thanks

i appreciate you sharing your personal observations and also citing outside sources.

by jpahk on Sep 20, 2007 4:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

An extra point

These two should fare well enough against righties. John failed to mention that with McGee's pitching motion, scouts have commented a good deal about his deception. McGee hides the ball very well that hitters have a tough time even clearly seeing a fastball at 91mph. Also, Clayton Kershaw throws a fastball that moves down and away from righties. At around 93 mph, this is practically an out pitch that most pitchers don't have.

I'm no commie, but the Reds shall be the best again!

by RedHopeful on Sep 19, 2007 3:56 PM EDT 0 recs

One quick comment

McGee is probably closer to 220 or 230 these days. He's bulked out pretty considerably over the past couple years.

And yes, McGee has been clocked at 98 on at least 5 separate occasions on Montgomery's stadium gun, which according to their radio announcer, is a slow gun (usually about 2 mph slower than scouts' guns), and he's sitting around 94-95 these days.

Vice-Chairman of the Sonnanstine Underground Railroad

by Brickhaus on Sep 19, 2007 6:39 PM EDT 0 recs

Some Light

In this article, they talk about his weight gain a little. Hope it helps.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263350.html

I'm no commie, but the Reds shall be the best again!

by RedHopeful on Sep 19, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

He's thick

The card John has is his current size. He's neither Colon or Canseco. He's got very thick legs, he's certainly not ripped, but he's not straight fat either. I don't see it becoming a problem going forward.

by Tyler on Sep 20, 2007 12:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like how baseball america put it...

That in a few years the Devil Rays will have a trio of the most lethal left-handers in the game: Kazmir, Price and McGee. Maybe Price will learn something from the other two?

by eeleye on Sep 20, 2007 1:02 AM EDT 0 recs

Myth Buster

good to see that the belief that mcgee has weak offspeed stuff is going away......i've noticed that many seem to assume that just because i guy doesn't use his offspeed stuff a ton means he doesn't have good offspeed stuff.....in mcgee's case, he's got by on his fastball primarily cause it's a damn good fastball, not cause he doesn't have a plus curve to go along with it......as he moves up the ranks he's using it more, and i expect that trend to continue

by Wheelhouse on Sep 20, 2007 8:46 AM EDT 0 recs

Myth?

It's not a myth, it's a very inconsistent curve ball. When I saw him in Tampa, he threw 18 breaking pitches, and 2 of them were strikes, and neither of them had any kind of sharp or late break. Both were his get me over curve. He flashed his plus curve, but it wasn't controlled well and got ZERO swings and misses on it agains High-A players because it didn't look like a strike at any point.

Now, later in the year in Montgomery when I saw him on TV, he got a bunch of swings and misses and it was controlled a whole lot better. But it's not a big league plus pitch. Just flashes a big league plus pitch.

by Tyler on Sep 20, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

I (and apparantly John) disagree

there isn't a pitcher in the world who is going to have his best stuff time in and time out......every guy is going to have a day when his stuff isn't working, which is when it's always nice to have a live fastball

there is nothing wrong with his curve....does he have it every time? course not, no one does

but keep spreading that myth...it appears some are buying it

by Wheelhouse on Sep 20, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

how many times have you seen him pitch?

clearly Tyler has first hand experience. something you and john don't. Tyler is giving an account of what he saw.

What you sound like is either me or Robcast saying that Pelfrey actually has a great slider.

by Metty5 on Sep 20, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

I've seen him pitch 3 times

once his offspeed stuff looked exceptional, once it looked above average, and once it looked below average......but after watching him throw a flat curve i didn't walk out of the park and immediately start telling anyone that would listen that his offspeed offerings are inconsistant and that all the scouts/prospectors are wrong on him....i saw him 3 times out of many, many outings.....i would prefer to base my opinion not just on those 3 outings, but also on the comments and reports from people who have seen him many, many times, from his high school days to current day.....those people, by and large, have had no issue with his offspeed stuff and see it as more then adequate for his level

to expect a pitcher to have his best stuff every time out is unreasonable....seeing someone pitch once, or twice, or even three times is not going to give you a well rounded opinion of what they have to offer, especially if what you see differs greatly then what has been reported by others

by Wheelhouse on Sep 20, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

You're reading me wrong

If he actually had a plus curve most of the time, he'd be in the big leagues because no one could hit him. What he does have is the makings of a plus curve. It is a plus pitch at times. I saw one start where it was a plus pitch the entire game. He was straight dominant. The live game in the FSL, he was perfect through 4 on his fastball and got rocked in the 5th. And I've read several other first hand reports that have said the same thing. I've heard the Montgomery radio broadcast talk about how his curve is off tonight. Or how great it looks and this is the best they've ever seen it. My point is, it's 2 or 3 starts. It's a bunch 10-12 starts, and it's anywhere from great to mediocre.

If I didn't believe his curve was going to become a plus pitch, I wouldn't say I like him more than Kershaw, which I am on the record saying. I'm not doubting the prosectors in their projection of him, but sometimes scouting reports don't give you the whole picture. What I mean by that is often, when they say plus, what they really mean is that it flashes plus, or is plus a lot of the time and should be by the time they get to the Show. In the next year or so, I expect him to have 3 true plus pitchs. But at this current moment, he only has a curve that is at times a plus pitch. And you're right, no pitcher has their best stuff all the time. But big aces are aces because they have it most of the time and even when they don't have it, they're stuff is still pretty good. Even when Scott Kazmir's slider is off, it's still a dirty pitch that gets swings and misses with some regularity. When Jake doesn't have it, at this point, he's all fastball. And in the show, you'll get hit, even if you're a lefty who can touch 100.

He is a prospect! I understand that. He's developing and he's without a doubt one of the Top-3 pitching prospects in the game IMO (with Kershaw and Price, I'm not counting Joba although he'll still technically be a prospect). He's not even close to a finished product. His curve is going to develop into a great second pitch in time. But saying he has a plus curve and that he just chooses to live off his fastball isn't neccessarily the case. He lives off the fastball because often the curve just isn't there. No one here is doubting the scouts. I'm certainly not down on him. I've been pimping him all week.

by Tyler on Sep 20, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

raging hard-on right now

...these smackdowns involving power-throwing lefties need to come with a NSFW tag plase John....One of them's still a TEENAGER for pete's sake....and there they are right at the top of the page...writeup, summary, and all...

by daveh33 on Sep 20, 2007 11:39 AM EDT 0 recs

Kershaw's control

John said:

"Kershaw should have three above-average to excellent major league pitches, and as he refines his command he should have a dominating combination of plus stuff and sharp control."

Kershaw may or may not refine his command. Being 19 (as opposed to 21) for a pitcher is not the advantage that it is for a hitter. I'd rather have McGee, by a fair piece.

by Mike Green on Sep 20, 2007 12:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Nonsense

Being 19 instead of 21 is an advantage for a pitcher, because it means he still has more development and projectability ahead than the 21 year-old. Only stathead foolishness says otherwise -- a legacy of their dislike of high school pitchers compared to college pitchers, a position that in its original form has become completely untenable in recent years with how many high school-pitcher draftees are turning into some of the best major league pitchers (Kazmir, Hamels, Billingsley, Cain, Gallardo, and I could go on).

by CanuckDodger on Sep 20, 2007 3:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

I have to agree with the OP...

His point was that the age and age v comp data points mean different things for hitters as compared to pitchers.

In my experience, I pay less attention to age and age v comp for pitchers for a number of reasons...

First, pitcher projections prove to be far less reliable than hitters. This is just my anecdotal experience after prospecting for about 15 years. I've found you can more reliably project a hitter's power than you can a pitcher's velocity, which is why when I'm prospecting pitchers I look at things as a "what you see is what you get" situation, which is not how I look at hitters. I think we can more reliably project Snider's power than Guerra's velocity. While neither is 100%, I'm far more confident saying Snider's power will develop than I am in Guerra's velocity. So what does Guerra's age get me? If he's not already hitting mid-90s, not much, not when I'm prospecting anyway. I'll watch him tho.

Second, the major problem with pitchers is injury, so I normally tend to value pitchers in the early 20s more than teenagers because at that point they are more physically mature. I believe the shoulder stops growing in the early 20s. So if a pitcher can make it into the 20s without being hurt, then I'm more confident he can cruise into the 30s without problem. A teenage pitcher's injury risk is a big negative, imo.

Lastly, pitchers tend to have a less consistent development curve than hitters. Top hitters tend to have more smooth development and improvement, while pitchers seem to put things together in jumps. So, for me, Kershaw's control problems this year is cause for concern because I can't confidently say that it will improve in any predictable way.

Anyway, so being younger is all fine and good, but its a bit of a double-edged sword for pitchers.

by beastball on Sep 20, 2007 6:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rumor

This is just a rumor from a message board. It comes from Greg Duplas'(pitcher in High-A) brother though. But what he's heard, they found a hitch in his delivery. The Montgomery pitching coach caught it and that's where the extra 3-5 mph he was throwing with in AA.

by Tyler on Sep 20, 2007 4:04 PM EDT 0 recs