Well, I had my first fantasy draft last night.  Some of you may remember my earlier plea for help:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/9/194922/4033

I want to thank everybody for the great advice.  Want to see what I did with it?  OK, I'll tell you anyway!  I drew the #5 draft slot.  I actually preferred a middle spot in a snake draft, although in retrospect, #3 might have been better.  More on that later......

Anyway, you already know about the lousy hand I was dealt in the keeper portion, so I won't bore you with all that again.  Here's my draft list with comments:

1.  Magglio Ordonez-I figured Miggy Cabrera and probably Grady Sizemore would be gone.  I was hoping for Beej Upton, but he went at #3.  Ordonez was my second choice with Carlos Lee my third.  Can't really complain here.
2.  Robinson Cano-  Upton, Cano and Brian Roberts were the class of a very thin 2B group.  Upton and Roberts were gone.  As a .300/20 HR/90/90 guy, Cano wouldn't be bad as an OF.  Plus, he still seems to be on the upward part of his career trajectory.  I had targeted Cano here and grabbed him.
3.  Ryan Zimmerman-  This may have been a reach, but I didn't think there was a pitcher worth taking this high and the dropoff to the next tier of 3B was pretty steep.  Zim is still young, on an upward trajectory, and I think the new ballpark will help him.
4.  Javier Vasquez-  I was going to take  Joe Mauer here, but momentarily lost track of my draft board, got disoriented and ended up having to make a hurried, last second pick.  Vasquez was on my short list for first pitcher to take and wouldn't have been available in round 5.
5.  Brian McCann-  Catching was very thin at the top.  The 3 worth considering were Martin, Mauer, McCann and possibly Salty.  Marting and Mauer were gone.  I wanted Mauer, but McCann might turn out to be a better choice?
6.  Matt Cain-  A run on pitchers had started.  Tim LIncecum was gone.  I had vowed to stay away from Giants pitchers because I don't think they will get very many wins.  I had a few decent choices here, but caved in and couldn't pass on my homeboy.
7.  Brad Hawpe-  I was targeting Delmon Young, Corey Hart and Hunter Pence here.  There had been a run on young OF's and they were all gone.  Hawpe was the fallback guy on my draft board.  He probably has less upside, but could be the best of that bunch this year.
8.  Yovani Gallardo-  I was a bit surprised Gallardo fell this far.  He may start the season on the DL, but the upside is so great, I'm happy to stash him for  a couple of weeks.
9.  Chad Billingsley-  There are several Dodger fans in my league.  I thought Billz was their best pitcher in the second half last season.  I was shocked that he was still on the board.  One of my candidates for  a huge breakout.
10.  Matt Garza-  I was going to take a closer here and they were dropping like flies, but I was surprised Garza fell this far and couldn't pass.
11.  BJ Ryan-  I might have screwed up on the closers, but I just couldn't stop myself from loading up on young, high ceiling starters.  Ryan is coming off TJ and has to compete with Accardo for the closer role in Toronto, but from everything I've read, he will be the closer there if healthy.  If not, well, I'm probably not going to win many H2H's in saves anyway.
12.  Brian Wilson- Another Giants homeboy.  Wilson looks like he's definitely winning the closer's job in ST.  He as the stuff to be lights out if he can control the strike zone.  He was on my target list as a late closer pick, so this one worked out.
13.  Kevin Gregg- Not a fan, but he did get something like 47 saves with good peripherals last year.  I needed another closer and he was the only one left!  Probably at least as good a bet as Borowski or Chad Cordero who went earlier.
14.  Billy Butler-  This is my favorite pick of my draft.  I had him targeted from the beginning, and I guessed right.  My friend told me he would have taken him in this round if I hadn't.
15.  Justin Upton-  Strictly an upside pick here, but what an upside!  Milledge and Maybin were taken earlier.  I probably would have taken Upton even if they were still available.  Worst case scenario, I stash him on the bench and decide whether to make him a keeper in the offseason.
16.  Yunel Escobar-  I thought I needed a multiple position IF as one of my utility guys.  Escobar is picking up where he left off last year in spring training and even showing some HR power.  I figure he's my SS if Tejada shrivels up from steroid withdrawl.
17.  Ian Kennedy- Now we're getting to the bench players.   I guess I have a fetish for young SP's.  Will Kennedy beat out Mussina for the Yanks rotation?  Does anyone else think he just might put up better numbers than Hughes or Chamberalain?
18.  JR Towles-  I was originally planning to let catcher slide and go for one of Soto, Towles or Suzuki late.  I ended up taking McCann early, but I like Towles upside and don't mind stashing him on the bench.  BTW, Soto was picked a few slots earlier.
19.  Chase Headley-  I guess he's not a lock to make the Padres 25 man roster, but he's absolutely tearing up the Cactus League and they are going to have to make room for him, right?  Right?
20.  Ubaldo Jimenez-  The love affair with young starters continues.  With all the closers taken, I figure I can pick up non-closer relievers off the scrap heap any day.
21.  Kevin Correia-  I was determined to take Correia somewhere.  I thought he would be my #5 starter, but here he is at the end of my bench!  After Jonathan Sanchez' start yesterday,  Sanchez might have been a better pick here.

So here's my final roster, including the players I inherited:

C    Brian McCann
1B  Carlos Pena
2B  Robinson Cano
3B  Ryan Zimmerman
SS   Miguel Tejada
OF  Magglio Ordonez
OF  Brad Hawpe
OF  Aaron Rowand
IF   Billy Butler
UT Justin Upton
UT Yunel Escobar
SP  Javier Vasquez
SP  Matt Cain
SP  Chad Billingsley
SP  Yovani Gallardo
SP  Matt Garza
RP  BJ Ryan
RP  Brian Wilson
RP  Kevin Gregg
P    Orlando Hernandez
P    Hideki Okajima
B    JR Towles
B    Chase Headley
B    Ian Kennedy
B    Ubaldo Jimenez
B    Kevin Correia

So how do you think Dr B did in his first draft?  I was starting from a pretty big deficit from the keepers I inherited.  I figured I have no chance this year anyway.  My goal was to take young players with upside and try to improve my keeper list for next year.  

Poll

What Grade Would You Give Dr B In His First Fantasy Draft?

6%

D

4 votes

4%

F

3 votes

24%

A

15 votes

40%

B

25 votes

24%

C

15 votes

62 votes | Poll has closed

www.rotoworld.com

KC pitcher Jimmy Gobble had a cactus thorn removed from his big toe.  He apparently accidently kicked a cactus while playing a round of golf in Arizona.  He felt the pain but continued normal activities including pitching.  "They said it was almost an inch, 3/4 of an inch long," said pitching coach Bob McClure, "how he pitched with that, I'll never know."

Eeeeowww!!!!

I'm finally going to try my hand at fantasy baseball this year.  A friend at work talked me into it.  I'm not looking for advice on specific players.  I'm pretty comfortable with that.  I just am uncomfortable with general draft strategy since I've never done it before.

Here are the basics of the league:  10 teams. MLB only. Mixed AL/NL, 26 players/team plus 2 DL slots.  H2H.  Scoring is basic:  BA, Runs, HR, RBI, SB's, W, ERA, K, WHIP, Saves.  Notice no BB's, OBP, non-HR XBH's.  Each team can carry over 5 players from the previous year, 3 hitters and 2 pitchers. I'm inheriting the weakest team by a good margin:  Aaron Rowand, Miggy Tejada, Carlos Pena, El Duque, and Hideki Okajima.  Draft is this coming Friday, March 14.  

Here's what I've done so far:  

1.  I ranked enough players at each position so that each team can pick two players before me and I would still get somebody I could live with.
2.  I then ranked a top 10 ignoring position(mostly OF's) and then mixed it up but still tried to stay approximately in the order of overall value.

OF is the strongest at the top, but relatively thin.

SP is only fair at the top, and also very thin since each team needs 5 SP's.

3B is pretty good at the top and quite deep.

2B is weak and thin.

Catcher is weak at the top, but fairly deep.

RP is strong and deep.

My problem:  To fill out the 10 teams, a total of 210 players will be drafted. My list goes only to #160!  The remaining players are about 1/2 of the RP's and flotsam/jetsam from the master list.

My question:  Should I stick with my list and try to expand it to at least 210, or should I try to frontload with OF's, and SPs(I'm most worried about coming up short on SP's) once I get past the first round or two?

The battle for positions in the Giants bullpen is heating up and getting interesting.  So far, there have been 3 significant events shaping the bullpen:

1.  The emergence of Merkin Valdez as a potential dominant 7'th inning/setup/closer-in-waiting.  I assume Valdez needs no introduction to this crowd.  He's coming off TJ surgery and is reportedly hitting 96 MPH with consistency so far.  Surprisingly, he has also displayed a decent slider and changeup which allowed him to freeze 3 batters in an inning two days ago for called third strikes.
2.  The collapse and option of Randy Messenger.  Messenger hasn't been right since he broke his left(non-pitching hand) striking the dugout/clubhouse wall last season.  He was getting rocked in ST, and possibly more importantly, was showing a lot of very bad body language on the mound.  The demotion came as a surprise this early in ST.
3.  Noah Lowry's injury.  Lowry's absence has created an opening in the rotation.  The three logical candidates would seem to be Jonathan Sanchez, Pat Misch and Brad Hennessey.  Hennessey got a start today, but Bochy insisted that he is not a candidate for the rotation.  He was just filling in for Tim Lincecum who's start was pushed back due to a mild groin strain.  Sanchez has been very shaky so far, and appeared to be headed down  to Fresno himself, but he pitched halfway decent today allowing just an unearned run in 3 IP.  Misch gets the start tomorrow in what is being advertised as an audition for the rotation.

Here's where it stands right now:

1.  Brian Wilson is the closer.  He's been a bit inconsistent, but it looks like Bochy is going to see him through into the season barring a total collapse.
2.  Tyler Walker is the setup man.  He can close if Wilson collapses, but would probably be better in the 8'th inning role.
3.  Valdez looks like the 7'th inning guy.  In fact, Bochy has started running Valdez, Walker and Wilson out in order on the same day to set up that rhythm.
4. The emergence of Merkin Valdez would seem to push Brad Hennessey back into a middle/long man role for which he is well suited but might be miffed that it is a demotion.  He would also seem to be a logical choice to take Lowry's spot in the rotation, but it seems Misch and Sanchez are ahead on the depth chart.
5.  Despite some bluster about 11 pitchers early in ST, Bochy is talking more about 12 now, not a surprise.  If Wilson, Walker, Valdez and Hennessey are locks, that leaves 3 more spots up for grabs among Steve Kline, Jack Taschner, Erick Threets, Vinny Chulk, the loser of the competition for the rotation, and several others.

Taschner and Threets have pitched fairly well.  Interestingly, Taschner, who has two seasons of MLB experience, has an option left, but Threets is out of options.

Steve Kline has absolutely stunk up the place.  I imagine he is a lock due to his veteran savvy, but it's real hard to swallow him blocking a more deserving younger player.

Vinny Chulk is recovering from Burger's Disease, a circulatory disease caused by smokeless tobacco.  He started out shaky, but is starting to put together a string of strong outings.  If he continues to pitch well, Bochy will want his veteran presence on the roster.

Jose Capellan, the rule 5 draftee, seems to be pitching himself back to the Boston organization allowing runs in almost every appearance so far.

A name to watch is Barolome Fortunato.  He is a hard throwing RHP, NRI, who has pitched very well, including pitching his way out of a no out bases loaded jam today with a run scoring GIDP and another groundout.  I expect he will start the season in Fresno and ride the Southwest shuttle to SF.

Another interesing development in the last few days is a couple of dominant outings by Bill Sadler with none of the poor control that has dogged him in the past.  Sadler probably also has no shot at making the big club out of ST, but he could be moving up the depth chart for in-season callups.

Pat Misch had a good outing today for the Giants in their spring training game against the Seattle Mariners.  He was their 3'rd pitcher of the game after Tim Lincecum's 2 2/3 shutout innings.  Misch's line for the day:  2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.  

The reason I bring up Misch is he is the kind of prospect you almost never hear brought up, even in "sleeper" lists.  Yet, he stands a good chance of making the major league club out of spring training either as a #5 starter or long relief man.

Pat Misch, BD- 08/08/1981 was drafted in round 7, 2003 after an undistinguished college career at Western Michigan.  He's a LHP with nice size at 6'2", 170 lbs(I think he's a bit stockier than that now).

In his first pro summer for Salem-Keizer in the NWL, he went 7-5, 2.18, 86.2 IP, 20 BB, 61 K.  I thought he was the best pitcher on that Salem-Keizer team.  Apparently the Giants thought so too, and promoted him directly to AA Norwich for 2004.  He pitched very well there too:  7-6, 3.06, 159 IP, 35 BB, 123 K.

Promoted to AAA Fresno the following spring, he struggled for the first and really only time of his minor league career:  3-9, 6.35, 102 IP, 40 BB, 69 K.  Note that his K's took a slight dip, but the big difference was in the BB/9.  He was demoted back to AA where he regained his footing:  4-2, 3.52, 61.1 IP, 7 BB, 43 K.  

It would be easy to dismiss him at that point as a pitcher with limited upside who reached his ceiling in AAA.  For awhile, it looked like the Giants might agree as he was sent back to AA again to start the 2006 season.  Once again, he pitched well there:  5-4, 2.26, 103.2 IP, 24 BB, 79 K.   He was given another crack at AAA just after midseason and did much better this time:  4-2, 4.02, 65 IP, 11 BB, 57 K.  He was rewarded with a 1 inning cup of coffee in September.

The Giants sent him to the AFL that fall and had him work on pitching out of the bullpen with mixed results.  As you might expect from someone who had started up to that point, he tended to do better if he started an inning than if he came in with runners already on base.

Back in Fresno to start the 2007 season, Misch pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2 and 3 inning stints and thrived:  2-5, 2.29, 66.2 IP, 19 BB, 74 K!  Called up toward the end of a disastrous season for the Giants, Misch acquitted himself well again earning Bruce Bochy's respect as one of the few relievers who came in and threw strikes.  His final MLB line was 0-4, 4.24, 40.1 IP, 12 BB, 26 K, but he came into his final start with a 2.75 ERA which ballooned to the 4.24 when he gave up 8 ER in 4.2 IP,

Misch's reputation is that he has 4 solid pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes, but no single "out" pitch.  BA calls his fastball "mid 80's", but I recall seeing it mostly 86-89 watching the radar readings on TV.  He added a cutter somewhere along the way enabling him to get inside on RH hitters.  He compliments the two fastballs with a slow curve and above average changeup that he throws on any count.

I think Misch will have a modestly successful MLB career.  He seems to have more starter's stuff, but has pitched more successfully out of the bullpen so far.  His ceiling is probably a #4 starter on an average team, but there are pitchers who have had long careers and made a lot of money with less.  For now, he has an excellent chance of sticking with the Giants bullpen as a long man with an outside chance at a #5 starter role if there is a trade, somebody gets hurt or Correia and Sanchez continue to pitch poorly.

Here's a picture of him pitching today:

Aw dadburnit!  I can't seem to get the right link!  Just go to giantsjottings.blogspot.com and scroll down a few pics and you'll find Pat Misch as well as a nice pics of Merkin Valdez and Tim Lincecum pitching today as well.

Sorry if this is taking a good thing too far, but I wanted to post some video links for Coldplay this morning so John could check them out.  Unfortunately, my work computer has youtube.com blocked.  

The first video is extraordinary, more for a couple of amazing dancers than for the music, but it gives you a nice sample of Coldplay music and a visual of the group too:

The Hardest Part

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKRZv6NGjdc

Next are live versions of 3 of my favorite Coldplay songs:

Fix You starts out kind of slow and meandering, but has that killer chorus at the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQT_e_lHIrU

The Scientist has a nice chord progression and interesting lyrics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7OQSl4FdJE

I remember Yellow because at the concert I went to, they released a bunch of yellow balloons from the rafters for a different visual effect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZV3fdEBWTN0

Again, sorry for the intrusion.  Promise I won't post any more of these except as a response in one of John's music diaries.

Potential #1 overall draft pick, Vandy 3B Pedro Alvarez missed some games over the weekend with wrist pain.  Well, it turns out he has a fracture in the wrist.  BA writeup doesn't say which wrist or which bone.  Aren't these usually hamates?

Fillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfillerfiller.

Arrgh!!!!!!!!

Dustin Ackley is only a sophomore at North Carolina, but he has to be the odds on favorite to be the #1 overall draft pick in 2009.  Coming off a tremendous freshman season in which he went .402/.448/.591(OK, I just know somebody is going to say his OBP is BA dependent!), Ackley went on an absolute rampage opening weekend for college baseball.  All he did was go 10 for 14 with a double and 3 HR's!  What a monster!

The college season got underway yesterday.  There were a lot of rainouts, especially in southern California where a lot of games were scheduled.  

Brian Matusz got roughed up by Tony Gwynn's SD State squad giving up 8 H and 6 Runs in 4.2 IP.

It was a tough night for a couple of other top college pitchers with Preston Guilmet of Arizona and Mike Stutes of Oregon State allowing 4 runs in 4 IP each.

The star of the evening had to be Lance Lynn, a huge(6'7", 260 lb) RHP from Ole Miss:  5 IP, 2 H,  0 R, 1 BB, 12 K.  

Aaron Crow of Missouri pitched well:  5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K.

Other notable performances came from:

Danny Farquar, La-Lafayette- 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 9 K.

Tyson Ross, Cal- 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K.

Shooter Hunt, Tulane- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K.

Scott Gorgan, UC Irvine- 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K.

The top pitchers seem to be mostly ahead of the hitters at this stage:  Pedro Alvarez- 0 for 2, Yonder Alonso- 0 for 4, and Kyle Russell- 0 for 2 failed to get hits.   Brett Wallace went 1 for 4, BB.  Petey Paramore, AZ State C was probably the hitting star of the night going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and a BB.

There were several outstanding performances by sophomore pitchers:

Ryan Berry, Rice- 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K.

Kendal Volz, Baylor- 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K.

Mike Ford, UCSB- 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K.

Steve Kalush, Santa Clara- 6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 13 K.

Nate Garcia, Santa Clara- 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K.

Steve Strasbrug, SD State- 8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 7 K.  Strasburg was going against USD and Brian Matusz.  He was featured in BA's "Marquee Matchup" yesterday.  He reportedly has touched triple digits with the heater in the past.

Seems like we see a lot of diaries asking for breakout prospects, prospects who's stock will rise dramatically over the next season.  Well, BA lists a breakout prospect for each team in their Prospect Handbook.  Though you all might be interested:

ARI:  Tyrell Worthington, OF
ATL:  Tyler Flowers, 1B/C
BAL:  Tyler Henson, SS
BOS:  Will Middlebrooks, SS
CHI:  Robert Hernandez, RHP
CWS:  Brian Omagrosso, RHP
CIN:  Kyle Lotskar, RHP
CLE:  Sung-Wei Tseng, RHP
COL:  Michael McKenry, C
DET:  Wilkin Ramiriz, OF
FLA:  Logan Morrison, 1B
HOU:  Chris Johnson, 3B/1B
KC:   Jose Duarte, OF
LAA:  Trevor Reckling, LHP
LAD:  Javy Guerra, RHP
MIL:  Zach Braddock, LHP
MIN:  Deibinson Romero, 3B
NYM:  Greg Veloz, 2B
NYY:  Mark Melancon, RHP
OAK:  Josh Horton, SS
PHI:  Freddy Galvis, SS
PIT:  Marcus Davis, OF
STL:  Kyle McClellen, RHP
SD:   Raynor Contreras, 3B/2B
SF:   Waldis Joaquin, RHP
SEA:  Carlos Peguero, OF
TB:   Alex Cobb, RHP
TEX:  Christian Santana, C
TOR:  Kyle Ginley, RHP
WAS:  Hassan Pena, RHP