I figure now that we know who signed and who didn't, soon everyone's going to be adding these guys to their top prospect lists, but before all the prospect groupthink, I want to see who everyone's top 15 signed 2008 draftee prospects are (I guess you could also do 10 or 20) based on their potential, likelihood of achieving it, ETA etc.  I'm curious to see where you think Melville fits in, if he does at all.  I guess this can be one of those things where you can look back at your post in a year or two and see how your initial rankings and predictions look now, for those who love to have bragging rights (me being one of them) :D

         It's funny how in a way we have a way of overhyping prospects and then lose patience with some high upside guys when they don't do everything we want and start looking at the next guy to overhype (cough cough Trevor Cahill)

         Anyway, while Triunfel has slipped down way down nearly every midseason prospect list, he has made some big improvements from his 2007 season.  He is hitting .284 with 8 HR, 29 SB, and a 41/27 K/BB ratio, with 7 of his 8 homers coming since July 1st.  Granted these numbers are Cal league inflated, but the fact is he is starting to show the developing power everyone was worrying about, not to mention very good speed.  While a .750 OPS is nothing to write home about, for a 17-year old to be putting up these kind of numbers while showing much improved baserunning, power, and strike zone judgement deserves more praise.  I think a lot of people soured or gave up on him after his immature attitude problems earlier this season, but I don't think it's a serious concern as it's hard to expect someone who is old enough to still be a high schooler to be acting like an adult.  

        I know he still has some flaws, but I think he has already started to answer some of our bigger concerns from last season, and he has plenty of projection for further improvement.   I hope the Mariners don't rush him and give him at least another year and a half (preferably two full years in Double-A and Triple-A) before bringing him up, but I think he still certainly has superstar potential, especially if he sticks at shortstop.   We may just need to exercise a lot patience before he completely fulfills it since he is still so young and his frame needs to fill out some more.  What are your thoughts on him?

It seems everyone has jumped off the Brandon Wood bandwagon after his 2006 and 2007 seasons regressed from his monster 2005, and his 2008 got off to a similar start with weak performance in the majors.  However, I still don't get how people could sour on a legitimate shortstop who is hitting .288 with 21 HRs in only 288 ABs for a .928 OPS  this season as a 23-year old in Triple-A.  Granted, he's repeating the level, but that's 93 points higher on OPS.  

As he had his big season at such a young age, I think people are getting SNTS and forgetting about Wood since he's progressed slowly, but he's still only 23 and is showing gradual improvement even if his K/BB remains a concern, though this is not uncommon among power hitters.  I for one, thing his prospect status has actually slightly risen from 2007, as he has returned to shortstop and his OPS has taken a leap.  The only issue now is opportunity for playing time.  Do you think he'll be dealt, and do you think he will be on a team's opening day roster for 2009?

With the season halfway over, let's take another look at the list i compiled in early march:

Real Sleepers - 

Ervin Santana - Has been pitching like the borderline ace he has potential to be, remains composed in most outings with better stuff and higher K/BB

Scott Baker - Has been very solid, with 5 consecutive quality outings, pitching just about as well as I had expected with the same strong K/BB

Zach Greinke - Exploded onto the scene as one of best pitchers, has cooled off since but overall has still been quite good

Boof Bonser - started ok, but collapsed in rotation, has sucked in bullpen as well, he might be traded or in minors soon

Andy Sonnanstine - BABIP indicates he should be better, but has been merely average despite good record, not King as many this season.

Daniel Cabrera- just like I predicted, no ace but has made strides in GB% and BB, certainly becoming better pitcher but Ks decreasing with it

Casey Janssen - injured - out for year

Aaron Laffey - started on fire, has been shakier since but overall stats are still very good with low Ks but great GB numbers

John Danks - Has been one of best pitchers in majors this year, a real find for those who took the risk, strong all-around

Brandon McCarthy - injured, expect him to struggle upon initial return

Jeremy Sowers - Guess I was wrong here, stuff if just too week.  Needs to improve control, I still have hope he can have a Litsch season

Kason Gabbard - started good, gradually declined, still ok for a texas pitcher, but on DL now

Faux Sleepers:

Brandon Morrow - Great in bullpen, lack of development may not hurt him if he sticks in set-up man or closer role.

Jon Lester - Despite weak periphs, K/BB indicating soon regression, has been very good thus far + no-no

Adam Loewen - had terrible control, now injured

Gavin Floyd - BABIP anomaly but has also improved as a pitcher somewhat, so overrated but still quite good

Troy Patton - injured, out for year

Jesse Litsch - pinpoint control has allowed for good W-L and ERA despite many hits allowed, how long can he last?

JP Howell - sure enough, ended up in bullpen, but has done quite well there and could soon be set-up man

Edwin Jackson - started strong, now showing old inconsistencies, still better than 07 though

Kevin Slowey - better than Sowers, roughly as good as baker though still more hype, has been especially dominant recently

Dallas Braden - hasn't really gotten much of a chance, meh as mid reliever, doubt he'll get to do much more than that

Joe Saunders - another candidate for big second half decline, BABIP etc, but still very good, I erred in underrating grounballer

Brian Bannister - hot start but came back to earth, overall as average as I had expected him to be

So what's the lesson in this?  Essentially, when it comes to starting pitching, it really is a crapshoot.  Other than that, i guess the only others are appreciate the groundball at least as much as the K (D-Cab, Laffey, Saunders), look for pitchers with great control and good stuff (Baker, Slowey), and hope to just get lucky sometimes  (Floyd). Any other ideas based on this list that can help predict who is overrated and underrated?

After reading this humorous article, I was inspired to rip my own team.  Also helped that 4 of the 6 AL players mentioned were on my fantasy roster

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/fantasy_baseball_owner_rips_team

I think I got one of the worst right here.  Now I know it's still only June, but the season's nearly halfway done so at this point its hard to reverse the damage even if they rebound.  Thing is, I'm still in 4th place, but with this AL-only lineup going in to the season I was expecting a lot more.  Not one of my hitters exceeded expectations, but many have disappointed...can't believe i took Travis Buck when Quentin and Giambi were available.

1B - Paul Konerko - sucked when healthy, little avg. or power, now injured. Expected decline but not THIS fast

3B - Miguel Cabrera- far from the star he was supposed to be, shelled out big bucks for him...

CO - Billy Butler - no power in majors, weak avg., now good in minors but that doesn't help my team

2B - Howie Kendrick - injured, now just ok but far from an elite 2B, hits in bottom of lineup, little power or SBs

SS - Jason Bartlett - never expected him to be great, but still mild disappointment, weak avg., 9 hitter

MI - Brian Roberts - nothing spectacular but has performed close to expectations at least

C - John Buck - ok but losing time to Olivo, since Olivo's been better and won starting job

C - Jeff Mathis - thought he was my roster's weak spot, but surprising he's the least disappointing player.

DH - Travis Buck - god-awful, demoted, came back up, mediocre and demoted again, what happened here?

OF - Nick Markakis - has been solid after rough start, I'll spare him

OF - Curtis Granderson - hasn't hit for average, hasn't stolen bases, power is just ok, not the same as 07.

OF - Alex Rios - Ok thanks for the SBs, but where's the power?  Only 3 HR, and the weak avg? killing me.

OF - Delmon Young - what IS this garbage?  No one even wants him anymore, no power, avg.  Is there still hope for him?

OF - Adam Jones - well I wasn't expecting him to be great, ok but fewer HRs than I was expecting.

My rotation (Bedard, Felix, Vazquez, Guthrie, Santana, Daniel Cabrera, Liriano, Dotel, Putz) at least has been ok minus the Putz, so I'll spare them my bitching and moaning.  

But does anyone else have a team with this many disappointing players on their roster?  Feel free to share your frustration and vent at the players that are dragging down your team.

There's been a power shortage around the league, but I find the most surprising lack of power to be coming from some top prospects who showed some pop and potential in 2007.  I know it's still early, but I think these are still causes for concern if nothing else.  Here are the biggest AL dropoffs from 2007 debuts.

Delmon Young - Moved to the 7th spot, not hitting for great average, Zero HR, only Stealing bases.  What's going on?  Still same bad periphs, but is he really just not good enough to get by with them?

Billy Butler - Started off strong, has tailed off a good deal.  Where's that 40 HR power boys?  I thought it then and still think it now, John's projection may not have been that far off.  Still, he needs some more power to even fulfill that projection.

Travis Buck - One of the most concerning strugglers, went from being an solid OBP leadoff machine to a K/BB disaster and it reflected in his overall performance.  Maybe some time in Triple-A will set him right again.

Adam Lind - Doing well in Triple-A, barely had a chance and struggled with it.  He wasn't that great in 07, but he wasn't that bad and with Thomas and Wells gone he should really be given a bigger shot right now.

Franklin Gutierrez - Has shown a little bit of power and a little bit of speed, but he's sporting a weak average and just really hasn't yet fulfilled expectations.  Still can turn it around IMO.

Feel free to add any names I forgot to mention.  Who will rebound from a bad April, who will continue to disappoint and why?  Discuss.

Here's my take on the more interesting guys in the past couple weeks, and what you should do if you own them or possibly available players you want to own them in fantasy leagues:

Ervin Santana - buy!  Has added more velocity on his Fastball and Slider, and really agressive and confident yet controlled on the mound, and has mostly shaken off the weird home/road split phenomenon.  I see him as a #2 starter the rest of the way

Cliff Lee - sell - Someone's gonna think he's having an Eric Bedard-like breakout out of mediocrity.  Yeah he was great a few years ago, and he should be good the rest of the way, but not an ace, so try to get something big for him.  If you wait til he puts up a meh start, his value will plummet.

Daniel Cabrera - buy (high risk)   I'm in the minority in thinking D-Cab could be turning a corner and becoming less of a thrower and more of a pitcher, changing his approach with more fastball establishment for better control.  I think the new coach helps out, but I think he had started making adjustments last season, focusing less on strikeouts and more about putting the ball in play.  Not saying his walk rate will be low, but I think it will be significantly lower than in the past, as well as his K rate, but he'll have lower ERA and WHIP.

Phil Hughes - buy   Unorthodox stance, he's not where he needs to be right now but you know all he needs is one average start for his value to shoot back up, so pick him up from a panicking team while his value's at an all-time low. 

Joe Saunders - buy   It may already be too late, but he's going to be pretty solid the rest of the way, maybe Carmona 07-lite.

Gavin Floyd - sell  It still may not be too late.  Milk his ex-top prospect status, say he's turned a corner, and toss him out like a hot potato.  Still will be better than 07 though.

John Danks - buy   He's going to have his up and downs this season, but he'll be with a near-4 ERA when all is said and done, and he still hasn't gotten much respect

Kevin Slowey - buy  His low ERA and minor league stint will leave him available even in some AL-only leagues, but he'll be coming back to replace Liriano and should be pretty solid

Brian Burres - sell   After his great start today, he'll be getting picked up, but he just doesn't have the control to be that good.  He had a good streak last year too though, so you can take your chances on specific starts, just don't stick with him.

Andy Sonnanstine - buy   His bad start masks that he's been doing pretty well recently, not getting the same Ks as last season but should still stick in the rotation with another good start.  More of a low end move

Zach Greinke - buy   Kid's the real deal, not sure if Bannister is mentoring him but either way he's definitely got his head on straight now and could be an ace the rest of the way.

Greg Smith - sell   He's okay, but really just a back-end guy, not this good.  Eveland's the better bet, but even his upside is fairly limited.

Chad Gaudin - buy  He started great last year, he can perform as a solid #3 with good Ks and a poor WHIP, getting a lot less hype than Eveland right now so snag him quick.

Bannister - sell   May lay down a mean interview, but just doesn't have the stuff to keep this up.  Strategy should allow him to constantly outdo his peripherals, but his peripherals are pretty awesome and he'll probably be a solid #3

Armando Gallaraga - Sell!   Are you kidding me?

Feel free to add more!

A lot of rookie or pseudo-rookie outfielders burst onto the scene in 2007 and cemented their status in starting lineups.  While their hype was in full force in the latter days of the 2007 season, a lot of the hype has died on these guys.  I'm wondering what you'd project for them for 2008, and/or the future.  I decide to throw in my guesses, which are really mostly based on gut instinct than anything else, but it should at least make for some interesting discussion

Jack Cust - Three True Outcomes player finally made a big splash in the big leagues with a ridiculous power surge, followed by severe cold and hot streaks the rest of the way.  Is he an Adam Dunn-lite?  or will his high K rate hurt his average too much for him to be an everyday player?  

My guess:  Hits .240s with 25+ homers in 400 ABs, loses PT in 09 and becomes platoon hitter despite high OBP and SLG%

Josh Hamilton - Former troubled prospect finally put it together last season, putting up huge numbers before being brought down by injury.  Move to Texas may not have big impact on #s, but has raked in ST and seems to be over injuries for now.  

My guess:  Injury free:  Hits .290s with 28 HRs, establishes himself as upper-tier OF for a few years before injury problems cause him to spend sizable chunks of time on DL. 

Josh Fields - Came through mid-season and had a huge power surge despite a low average.  Surprisingly demoted to Triple-A, at least until Crede gets moved somehow.  My guess is he comes back up soon since he has nothing left to prove, and he could play OF if a spot opens up.  

My guess:  stagnates in Triple-A, is ok but not as great when he gets second chance, .255 16 HRs in 350 ABs, may not secure job for 2009 (may move to DH) but eventually becomes solid regular though never hits 30 HRs in a season, 

Franklin Gutierrez - Long-time prospect was consistently impressive in major league stint, hitting for some power, average, and speed.  I don't think anyone considers him a fluke, but the question is how much of the power, the average, and the speed will he have.  

My guess:  .270  20 HRs 12 SBs with decent run production, stays a roughly average regular for a few years with one really good year but a quick decline.

Travis Buck - Oakland's Leadoff man has been a solid run producer when in the lineup, but he has proven to be somewhat brittle or just unlucky.  Maybe he shakes it off this season.  Has ability to hit for .290 average and doubles power with maybe 10 HRs and a handful of Stolen Bases, but I doubt there's a lot of upside here.  I think David Dejesus would be an OK comp if only Buck played center.

 My guess:  Manages 450 injury-free ABs, .285, 9 HRs, 5 SBs, moved to center after Denorfia/Sweeney struggle or becomes one of the better 4th OFs in the game, with injuries interfering with chances to win starting role.

Carlos Quentin - Former top prospect laid egg in bigs, but in a great hitting environment now.  Unfortunately he can't do much hitting from the pine, needs some sort of opportunity to get ABs.  I don't feel this is the year for his breakthrough, though it may never happen if he doesn't get regular playing time.

 My guess:  Gets opportunity for some ABs, hits for power but not average, gets blocked again, starts 2009 in a platoon or a backup, traded to a team that can give him more PT and then he puts together a solid but not spectacular season, never really breaks through 

Feel free to include any interesting players I didn't mention.

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So last year, Jeremy Guthrie got a lot of hype during his breakout season, along with the Carmona and Shields.  Guthrie fell further off the map than either of the two of them as the season wore on, but still I'm surprised by his very pessimistic projections by ZIPS and RotoAuthority which indicate he'll be a below-average starter.  

During his peak last season people were saying his fastball could hit 97 mph and had good offspeed stuff to complement it.  His K/BB ratio seems to indicate he had decent control even if not dominant. So what happened?  Did he lose his stuff, or are people looking to much into his age and the late-season tumble, which could have been due to fatigue?  What do you see for him for 2008, and why?

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Padres got Justin Huber from the Royals for a PTBNL.

We have been waiting for this for so long, but perhaps it's too late for Huber.  He's kind of stagnated after all this time not being given a legitimate chance at a starting job.  What do you think the chances are  that Huber  makes the Royals regret underappreciating him and becomes a productive Major League hitter?