Tis' the season to rosterbate, I suppose.  This is the offseason we've all been waiting for as Braves fans.  Finally, we have the money to sign elite free agents, the prospects to trade for quality players and the foundation for a promising future.  This is a critical time for our franchise and a defining moment for General Manager Frank Wren's tenure in Atlanta.  I do not envy his task, but I can't help but try my hand at his job. 

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I know a great number of members here hate the idea of trading our young shortstop, but I'd like to make an argument against that sentiment.  Yunel Escobar has been a solid performer for us and he's shown flashes of potential for more, but it's not as though he's indispensible for our present or future.

Like Jeff Francouer before him, Yunel Escobar burst onto the scene in Atlanta with amazing success and flair to boot.  Unfortunately, he has some other similarities with our former Golden Boy.  Yunel suffered a sophomore slump, but that was to be expected because of his minor league track record.  It may be difficult to believe, but what we saw last season is much more indicative of his actual expected performance in the majors than his impressive rookie campaign.  Aside from some durability concerns, he also has some temperment issues.  His intangibles overall are solid, but he's not flawless in any respect.

Something a bit more burried is the fact that we have plenty of players that could serve the same purpose as Escobar in our line-up: namely, two-hole hitters.  Most people think of Kelly Johnson as his redundancy (personally, I have shifted into the camp that sees him as a #6 hitter), but Casey Kotchman has the same profile as a hitter as well.  What's really troubling about trading Yunel is the fact that we don't have anyone in house that could replace him both in the order and on the field.

Prospect Brent Lillibridge is clearly not ready, so we'd have to fill his vacancy via trade or the free agent market.  I happen to believe that the latter gives us a pair of excellent possibilities.  The first and least likely is former Brave Rafael Furcal.  He's a serious injury risk, but he's also likely a superior player to Yunel Escobar.  His inability to stay healthy duing his contract year makes he a potential bargain as a free agent, despite very impressive stats as a Dodger over the last three seasons.  I think of his acquisition as a longshot, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility.  Someone more likely, however, is yet another former Brave: Edgar Renteria.

Before you point to his disasterous stint with Detroit, I'd like to point out a few this about Reneteria that I've notice by looking at his career.  Since his breakout season in 2002, he's struggled in contract years and in his first year with a new team.  He also seems to be alergic to the American League.  All three of those factors were in play with the Tigers last season and none of them would be an issue if he were to return to Atlanta (where he had the best time of his career other than the 2002-2003 stretch with the Cardinals in St. Louis).  He'd likely come cheaply and would welcome a second stint with the Braves.

Both of the replacements I've mentioned would be shortterm fixes, but we have longterm potential in the pipeline already.  With some more time at AAA, Lillibridge could regain his form.  A couple of years into the future, we could be looking at Brandon Hicks as our starting SS in Atlanta.  Oh, and there's always free agency and the trade market to address the void if it persists.

The point of this is to say that trading Yunel would not be the end of the world.  I'm not trying to convince people that it is a good idea (I'm not convinced of that myself) but I hope this keeps people from rejecting it out of hand.  If Jake Peavy comes with a price tag of Escobar, Jo-Jo Reyes, Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke (and we don't have to extend his no-trade protection or pick up his option year before the time comes) then we should consider it.  Aces don't come cheap and they don't come often.  We have the payroll and roster flexibility to consider a trade like that and we should.  That's really all I'm trying to say.

Now that we're in full offseason mode here (I hate not watching our Braves play October baseball) I figured I'd post a little conversation starter.  Most of us are well aware of the key aspects of our team for now (we have $40M+ to spend and we need two frontline staters and a slugging outfielder) but I thought I'd flesh it out a bit more.  With that in mind, here's a little spreadsheet I've been working on:

 I apologize for some formating irregularites, but I believe it is understandable still.  And now, a few thoughts about the above.  That's about the line-up we'll be sporting, with the notable change of a new power-hitting OF replacing B. Jones and moving into the 5-hole.  Matt Diaz will almost certainly be non-tendered, so he will likely have to be replaced on the bench. Two new frontline starters will make it so the final three youngsters listed in the rotation above will have to battle for the #5 spot.  The bullpen needs a lefty and either Bennett or Carlyle will likely be pushed out there.  If arbitration costs us a combined $10M (I think that's fair) we'll still have significantly over $40M to spend for new acquisitions.  With that said, now on to my hopes for the offseason.

We cannot afford to splurge on C.C. Sabathia and expect to fill our two other voids with top-notch talent.  I think the way to go is signing someone like Derek Lowe and either Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell.  As for the other starter, I have to believe we'll look for one in a trade.  I'd be fine giving up something considerable (Hanson, Schafer/Hernandez, Freeman/Flowers, Lillibridge and/or Brandon Jones) for a guy like Jake Peavy or Matt Cain; remember, those guys aren't getting dealt unless their respective teams are blown away by the offer and my proposal is equivalent to what the A's got for Haren, which is a fair measuring stick .  I think we may be in the market for someone else under the radar, so we shouldn't freak out if you're not into moving that much of our farm. 

Well, I really just want to get some more conversation on the offseason going and I think I've put enough out there for now.  I look forward to the comments and, as always, go Braves!

Since our boys are no longer playing games but others are, I think it's a fine time to debate more general topics in MLB.  This season, a pair of transports made huge impacts in the NL and have forced their way into the Senior Curcuit's awards discussion.  Meanwhile, the AL has a record-breaking closer to consider for all their hardware, indicative of their wide open races.  If I had a ballot, this is what it would look like:

• AL Cy Young - Roy Halladay, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (Cliff Lee 2nd and Jon Lester 3rd)
• AL MVP - Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox (Grady Sizemore 2nd and Alex Rodriguez 3rd)
• AL ROY - Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays (Mike Aviles 2nd and Joba Chamberlain 3rd)
• NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants (Johan Santana 2nd and Dan Haren 3rd)
• NL MVP - Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals (Chipper Jones 2nd and Hanley Ramirez 3rd)
• NL ROY - Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs (Jair Jurrjens 2nd and Joey Votto 3rd)

A few things jump out at me after doing this, such as the dominance of the AL East (all three award winners and 6/9 of those receiving votes), the success of former AL pitchers (Santana, Haren and Jurrjens) in the NL and the derth of OF (only Sizemore made it) on these lists.  The only race that was a runaway in my book was the NL MVP.  For the others, deference was given to those players on playoff bound teams (Pedroia, Longoria and Soto somewhat) and, in the event that there were none of those, I went with the more dominant performance as I will explain now.  Halladay's complete games and Lincecum's strikeout rates gave them the edge in my book.  I expect the media will overturn those two judgements when the real announcements are made, but I think the other four are downright probable. 

Well guys, I look forward to your thoughts about my picks and your own counter-ballots in the comments below.  As the offseason progresses, I'll be sure to post my thoughts on our Braves and the rumors/ideas that arise.  Cheers and go Braves!

As a baseball fan, I'm partial to that game's terminology.  That said, our Broncos just played a perfect game.  Playing the final game of the NFL's opening week, Denver put on a show and established themselves as a legitimate threat in an uncharacteristically woobly AFC.  Here at MHR, our community is blessed with members that possess a far greater grasp of the technical attributes of football, but our team's sterling performance tonight has inspired me to write my own FanPost comprised largely of a more shallow (perhaps emotional) analysis.  If you care to read something along those lines, follow me below the fold.

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Well, here goes nothing.  It's early Sunday morning and I'm already bored, so I felt like trying something a little silly just for fun.  The following are my ridiculously specific and almost random predictions for the performance of our beloved Broncos this Monday Night at Oakland.  This will almost certain look all sorts of foolish once the game comes to and end, but I don't mind it.  I'd love to know what you all think of these predictions and I'd even encourage you to make some of your own.  Have at it,

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Well guys, I hope you don't mind my posting an off-topic question in a Fan Post.  It's not entirely of topic because it does involve a Bronco.  Basically, I was unable to access a fantasy draft on Yahoo (the league's a yearly one with some friends from Princeton) and I ended up with the following roster:

• QB - Carson Palmer
• RB - Brandon Jacobs
• WR - Randy Moss
• WR - Reggie Wayne
• TE - Tony Gonzalez
• RB/WR - Tory Holt
• RB/WR - Anquan Boldin
• K - Shane Graham
• DEF - Jacksonville
• Bench - QB Eli Manning, RB Deuce McAllister, WR Kevin Curtis, WR Joey Galloway, TE Donald Lee, DEF New England

Not a lost cause, but certainly not what I would have wanted.  There are several players on my bench that I'm likely to cut (Curtis, McAllister, New England and maybe Lee) but that's not my main concern.  My worry is my complete lack of depth at RB and my general dislike for Jacobs/Giants.  There is nothing of worth on the waiver wire and only one team that was interested in swaping RBs for my position of strength (WR).  The offer on the table is the following:

• I give WR Tory Holt
• I get RB Selvin Young and RB Chris Perry

This was pretty much what I was looking for, but now I'm not so sure.  I'm concerned about Shanny's track record with RBs and I'd like to see Perry play a regular season game before investing so heavily in them.  The problem is that solid performances from them combined with either injury or ineffectiveness from this guy's other RB might void the deal if I wait.  My question is as follows: should I pull the trigger now, wait and see for a week or stand pat and cross my fingers for the year?  Oh, the league scoring is about the same as regular Yahoo scoring, for those concerned about that.  Again, I apologize for the off-topic post, but I trust the judgement of those on the board and it's not entirely out of left field.  Thanks in advance to those who offer their advice in the comments.  Cheers and go Broncos!

1. RP Tommy Hanson: We've been burned before by apparent aces in the making, but there's no reason to punish this kid for the failures of others.  He's more highly regarded than any of his recent predecesors and for good reason.
2. LP Cole Rohrbough: After a promotion to A+ ball, the ERA is finally matching up to the peripherals.  He's brought the walks down at the higher level at the cost of some Ks, but he's still striking out plenty of guys.
3. RP Kris Medlen: The unexpected move from the bullpen to the rotation has yielded amazing results.  He was a well liked prospect as a reliever and his value can only grow now that he's a successful starter.
4. LP Todd Redmond: Trading Tyler Yates to the Pirates for this kid is quietly turning into a great move.  This guy has overcome a lack of pure stuff with great control and smart pitching, which is better than the oft found opposite combination.
5. LP Edgar Osuna: This kid is one of my personal favorites and he's following up a great first year in the Braves organization with a very solid sophomore effort.
6. LP Jeff Locke: The numbers aren't quite the, but the stuff certainly is.  He's overcoming a bad start and some inconsistency overall, but he still has awesome potential.
7. LP Steve Evarts: This might be the surprise of the list, but the kid is just lights out when he's healthy.  This is almost entirely a potential choice, but I believe in him.  You should, too.
8. LP Scott Diamond: Here's a guy that I know some were high on before this season, but was not on my radar before the season.  Nothing about his stat sheet drops your jaw, but everything looks good across the board.
9. RP Ryne Reinoso: This should read just like Diamond's comments, just a notch worse.  Lots of people are high on him now, but I'm not totally sold.
10. LP Jose Ortegano: Another personal favorite here, but it's hard to overlook his dip in production after his rock solid opening act last year.  Hasn't really pitched in about two months, so injuries might have held him back. 

The more I read his stuff, the more I think ESPN's Jayson Stark is a Braves fan.  That said, he had a couple of things to say about our franchise that I found interesting.  His full article is quite lengthy, so I'll snipe the quote related to our team.

How much is Teixeira worth? If Scott Boras is serious about establishing a 10-year, $230 million price tag on Teixeira, he won't have many bidders to play the Yankees against. Most teams view him as a five-year, $90 million kind of guy.

An official of one club said [...] "Hey, he's a good player, obviously. But is he a guy who's going to legitimately carry a club for the money he's asking? I don't see that."

Stark sees the Mets picking up Delgado's 2009 option, so the Yankees might be his only shot at a huge payday.  Tex has mentioned the Mariners as a possible landing spot, but you have to believe a new GM will look to rebuild that franchise before paying big bucks to a superstar free agent.  We have no real reason to makea play for him now, but if 5/$100M had a chance to get it done, I'm disappointed we dealt him for what we did.

Another team to watch closely this winter is the Braves, who will wave farewell to more than $56 million in contracts (primarily Teixeira, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton and Mark Kotsay). But the Braves have never been fans of free-agent madness. So there's no reason to think, even with the loss of Tim Hudson for all or most of next season, that they'll chase Sabathia, Sheets or A.J. Burnett.

 

More likely Braves targets would seem to be starters in the Ryan Dempster/Derek Lowe mold. Or they could check out the Asian market. But they also could take a pass on free agency and trade for a high-priced arm, a la Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang. The Braves have signaled that they'll be willing to talk this winter about dealing just about anyone on the roster, except Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar. So they'll have lots to talk about.

I love that the two pitchers Stark chose to headline that particular category are the two I'd most like to see us sign (to three year deals or less) but I'm most interested in the two other options he brought up: the Asian and trade markets.  I've loved Harang (not so high on Arroyo), but his disasterous season this year scares me because I fear it might be something physical.  A reclamation project could be compelling if the price is right.  I have to wonder how far we'd go to secure the services of top Asain pitchers...

Meanwhile, friends of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine continue to report that both want to return to Atlanta next year for low-guarantee, incentive-packed deals as long as it's even remotely possible for them to pitch. In part, it's because they feel remorse for collecting $22 million this year and contributing just five wins and 18 starts. But in part it's also because these guys are such good friends, they feel as if they were cheated out of one last season of playing with each other. And they'd love a mulligan, in more ways than one. "If they want to come back, and you're the Braves," one NL executive said, "I don't know how you would say no."

If Smoltz would be relegated to the bullpen and Glavine could supply #5 starter numbers, I'd be hardpressed to say no to their request.  Maybe this is how we can make people like me feel better about splurging on Sabathia!  Right now I'm not sold on either Morton or Reyes and they'd be battling for the #5 slot in our 2009 rotation even if we signed two free agents. 

This offseason should be interesting and I hope fun.  We have many ways we could go, so there is plenty for us to debate.  So, what are your thoughts about all this.  Should we bring back Smoltz and/or Glavine on the cheap?  How should we fill the holes in our rotation?  What do you take, the over/under on Tex's next contract: 7.5/$160M?

I realize that this point in the season is one in which most fans are either overly optimistic or far too pessamistic and I wouldn't pressume to be above that.  Instead, I just wanted to present some of my feelings for you guys to help me.  I know most of you have properties in La-La Land, so I'll take the opposite approach because I'm comfortable as a devil's advocate.  So, without further ado, here are my concerns in a position by position format:

• QB: Cutler is a superstar in the making, but we have basically no depth behind him. 
• RB: There's definitely depth here, but there isn't a true franchise back in the bunch,
• FB: I love Peyton Hillis, but I wonder if incorporating a FB into our offense isn't a step backwards in our system's progression.
• WR: Royal's rapid ascent on our depth chart speaks to his skills, but it also exposes his competition as wanting.
• TE: Scheffler's never healthy and Graham's still basically a 6th lineman at this point.
• OL: Not much experience up front and major injury questions marks for those veterans there is worrisome.
• DE: The youngsters don't seem to be stepping up and Doom seems to be on his own again.
• DT: Not loving the depth here and the overall talent is not much better.  Robertson's health and Thomas' developement are both musts and suspect.
• LB: Webster failed on the outside last year and now he's at the heart of our D.  Boss' back-up will likely see some time and can't be very good.
• CB: Can we trust Bly opposite of Champ?  How will those burried in the depth chart by those two vets respond to limited playing time and stiff competition?
• S: McCree might be the new Lynch and I don't think we've found the answer opposite him.
• ST: I'm liking the depth for the coverage teams, but young kickers and punters usually struggle unless they're studs.

Well, I feel that's about as negative as I can be at this time.  Honestly (and I've said this often) I think this squad should be good enough for a winning record and will challenge for a Wild Card.  Overall, I'm worried by our defense (especially up the middle) and I fear that we may be in for another frustrating year insomuch as a couple more playmakers on that side of the ball would make us legit contenders.  So, tell me where I'm wrong; I'd be happy to hear it!  Cheers!